Survivorship bias

Impressive numbers in this tweet have to be accompanied by other data to actually mean something:

  • What were the returns of those who responded to other similar emails? And how many of those emails were sent?
  • How well did those who did not respond to this email with their investments elsewhere?

Without that it's just an anekdote about your uncle winning in a lottery.

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NIH #24 – Misaligned incentives

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NIH #23 – A-a-aa not so good song